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Betting Odds explained: How are soccer, football odds calculated

Analyzing the Data

*Data analysis is the first and most crucial step in the process of calculating the odds. Bookmakers usually hire specialists, like traders and odds compilers to compile all the data possible and make sense of it. They have the best tools possible and work with the best software to ensure that they get near-perfect results and objective statistical evaluation of each game and the possibilities. *

Cash Projections

The next step after calculating each outcome's possibilities is to include the cash projections into the equation. Bookmakers use advanced algorithms to calculate how much cash flow would be placed on a specific market. In addition to that, they have a database of past cash projections that helps them calculate the number better. You might ask yourself, ‘Why are cash projections so important?' Well, cash projections help bookmakers keep an individual balance on each outcome and bet, so they don't mix up anything and end up losing a lot of money.

The Margin

After bookies have calculated the odds and how much money they would stand to make from the matched, they need to post the odds. But unfortunately, odds don’t leave the printing press without an adjustment first. They go through what’s called a “margin” or sometimes even called “juice.” this mysteries factor allows bookmakers to make their money. We all know that bookies don’t offer fair odds to their customers, that’s why more and more people prefer to wager on betting exchanges instead. The bookmakers use the margin and provide overall odds that are slightly lower than what they should be. If both outcomes have the same percent probability, then the odds should be even (2.0), which means that if you wager £100, you will stand to make £200 if you win. Unfortunately, the actual odds bookies provide are lower than the conventional ones, which means that they might offer something like 1.5 or 1.9 depending on their generosity instead of even odds. The difference between the odds is the “margin” itself. The best online bookmakers have a margin of about three to five percent, while land-based shops have a higher percentage because they pay more significant taxes than online platforms.

Why do odds change?

odds change because of physical events during the match itself, like a red flag, player change, injury, penalty, goal, or other events that might change the match's outcome. Another reason why the odds change is because of the initial cash projections, whenever they have to be adjusted.

Have bookies made a big mistake with calculating the odds in the past?

Yes, they have. At the start of the 2016 season, all kinds of bookies placed different odds in the style of 5000/1 on Leicester City to win, and in the final, they did. That year bookmakers lost millions or square billions of dollars because they were all wrong when calculating the odds correctly.